If you’re reading this article, you likely know that forecasting the wind in Squamish is far more complex than simply checking ikitesurf and showing up at the beach.
Good news! I (Jack Rieder) have been kiteboarding, and winging in the sea to sky for about 12 years now, and have spent way too much time learning how this crazy spot works. So I’ll SAVE YOU THE TIME.
Firstly, Squamish is primarily thermal driven, which means just because the WindGuru forecast says 7 knots DOES NOT mean you should plan a day of golfing. In this article I will explain my own personal steps in forecasting a day in Squamish and link some great resources; however, to start let’s just cover the basics. Squamish wind is based on the temperature gradient between Vancouver and Pemberton-ish. This matched with the large mountains, like the Chief, compress the wind making it strong enough for all of our awesome windsports.
While the wind is thermal in nature, I don’t actually trust a simple graph showing the temperature in Vancouver and the (hopefully) higher temperatures further north. MAIN THING: Is it sunny? Yes. Then it’s probably windy, but to make sure..
STEP 1 and the very best resource for Squamish wind is the Environment Canada website: https://weather.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=02&siteID=06400 (The Howe Sound is the one you want!) The numbers aren’t perfectly accurate but they offer a great starting point. A pretty classic day will say “Wind southerly inflow 10 to 20 knots except southwesterly inflow 25”. That is great! This will likely mean around 25 knots in Squamish. BUT, where it gets interesting is when the environment Canada site says “diminishing to light near noon” it will still probably be 20kts haha.
I KNOW, CONFUSING. Here is STEP 2 in your forecasting journey. I really like Wind Guru: https://www.windguru.cz/3612 for gathering additional information about what the day might hold. Let’s keep it simple, you can just look at the first forecast (GFS 13km). On those days where Environment Canada says it might be lighter, WindGuru can tell you a ton about whether or not it’ll happen and even roughly what time. The direction on WindGuru is actually quite accurate and can give you a sense of when and if the wind will flip directions and turn on. In case you are new to Squamish, in the morning it often outflows (North Wind - Wrong Direction for riding), then as it heats up throughout the day it inflows (South West Wind - Good Direction). As an example, if Environment Canada says outflow or “light” and WindGuru doesn’t have SW wind until 1 or later, it’s going to be iffy. However, if windguru says 5-7kts SW at 11am you can basically ignore Environment Canada and know you’ll be having a great day on the water!
Here are some quick notes on translating WindGuru forecasts to real wind speeds. 5-7kts SW = 15-20kts real world. 7-9kts SW = 20-25kts real world. 9+ kts SW = STRONG DAY.
Now that you have a good sense of what you’re looking for, even if you’re not free to ride start practicing your forecast skills and compare them to the live wind meter at the Squamish Windsports Society: https://squamishwindsports.com/conditions/wind/
This graph is also a very helpful resource for seeing what is going on in the morning when you have a riding day planned. Forecasts can be wrong! So, when you wake up have a look, if it’s already inflowing it’ll probably be a stronger day, but interestingly that tends to mean it’s a bit gusty because there’s a bit of “storm frontal wind” in the equation as opposed to a pure thermal. In contrast if you wake up and check the wind and it’s 15-20kts from the North, it may take a lot longer for the wind to flip because it has to fight that outflow off. Notice this graph was north but sub 10kts so the switch came quite early and it was a classic day.
In contrast, this day started out blowing SW right from the get go and look at that it was STRONG
Now that you are a pro and you’ve been training on your forecasting skills, here are some other fun pieces of information I’ve noticed over the years.
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Clouds aren’t actually a bad thing, they can be lighter steady days. RAIN is a BAD thing though.
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Smoke actually makes it WAY steadier. In fact the smokey days are the best kite freestyle days I’ve ever had.
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Heat waves kill the wind. Those weeks everyone gets nervous about their lack of AC where it’s 30+ degrees, probably won’t be windy, but if it is it’ll be very short lived so you better be there waiting and don’t ride further than you’d swim. Because the Squamish Windsports Society rocks but they aren’t there to take you home from a silly decision haha.
On that note, enjoy the breeze and see you on the water! I hope this write up will help save you some gas money avoiding being skunked, but more importantly help you snag some sessions you would have otherwise not seen coming!
Cheers,
Jack Rieder